Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
